I am often labeled the doom & gloom guy but when the real data is examined good news for Portland Housing is in desperately short supply. Some title companies have posted reports stating that “average sale price is up” …. but those numbers don’t include the fact that average sale price per square foot is largely unchanged or dropping. Recent Case-Shiller Reports show that the Portland Housing Market has dropped over 9% in the last year and recent localized increases are not enough to make for seasonal adjustments. Other supposed “good news” put forth by Portland Realtors is comparing July 2011 sales figures with July of 2010 … but here again we’re confronted with the fact that July 2010 was even lower than it should have been due to the end of the infamous 8,000 home buyer tax credit (meaning more people bought in May so by comparison the next month saw an equivalent drop). Core inflation on the Dollar is up. Consumer spending is down and the Fed is out of ideas on how to fix the broken Humpty-Dumpty that is the effigy the US Housing Market.
Housing Market & Wall Street
Wall Street is speaking loudly as fear has gripped sophisticate investors selling off equities in response to the shrinking global economy. OK, so we are not in a technical recession but I believe that is only technical distinction and political wordplay. From what I see Oregon and the US are experiencing some serious stagflation.
As a Real Estate Broker that specializes in Short Sale Transactions I see the effects of the “recovery” close up and personal. There is no recovery, or least not until there is some major changes in the way we as a nation go about our daily business..
Portland Housing Recovery???
It seems unlikely that we will experience a Portland Housing Recovery in the near future, not yet at least. Not with government spending where it is and no political spine to fix it. Debt is one thing but our nation and Oregon keep spending like there is no tomorrow. Well tomorrow is here and now. If our debt was stable we would not have received a down graded credit rating from S&P. S&P did not have a problem with our nations debt, the problem was we keep adding to it at an alarming rate. Bottom line is our nation and the great state of Oregon have to cut spending and as much as i hate to say it they both need to raise taxes.
Portland Housing: The Good News
Sooner or later and I think sooner rather than later, inflation will overcome the home value decline and prices will return to the 2005 levels. Gas might cost you six bucks a gallon but at least you could sell your home for what is against it. But until that happens Oregon Short Sales and foreclosures will continue.
Where is all this going? More foreclosures and more short sales. Even as the Fed implements Quantitative easing HUD will still have their hands full without the creation of real jobs and across the board governmental spending cuts.